In depth analysis of the hottest power equipment i

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In depth analysis of the power equipment industry: the acceleration of electric infrastructure focuses on the determination of the growth of UHV and new energy vehicles, and the evolution of the globalization pattern and industrial chain opportunities: the growth of new energy vehicles is mainly reflected in: 1) policies to encourage high-end, superimposed double integral policies to ensure that new energy vehicles improve the quality of the supply end; 2) Model upgrading, increasing consumer choice to stimulate demand side growth; 3) The penetration rate of new energy vehicles and passenger vehicles is low, and there is a broad space for replacement for a long time. In response to investment opportunities in the industrial chain, we believe that we should focus on the evolution of the globalization pattern. The scarcity of domestic high-quality production capacity has increased the concentration of the power battery market. In 2018, Cr5 reached 77.8%, of which catl accounted for 41.3%, and has the strength of global competition. In the future, Panasonic, LG Chemical, Samsung SDI and catl will form the main force of global market competition. In addition, with the opening of the market, foreign auto brands such as Tesla and BBA are expected to accelerate the layout of the domestic market and bring historical opportunities to local midstream manufacturers. In the past 19 years, it is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: 1) look at "China core": look forward to the power battery enterprises that are the first to enter the overseas supply chain, focus on Ningde era, and suggest to pay attention to BYD and Yiwei lithium energy; 2) Look at the "industrial chain": focus on the leading materials and parts enterprises that have been recognized by international automobile enterprises and leading battery enterprises and have entered the global industrial chain system, and focus on dangsheng technology, putailai, xinzhoubang, Shanshan shares; It is suggested to pay attention to Enjie shares, Xingyuan materials, Xinlun technology, Xusheng shares, Hongfa shares, Sanhua intelligent control, etc; 3) Look at the "good pattern": optimistic about the prosperity of the negative pole and electrolyte links, with emphasis on putailai and xinzhoubang; It is suggested to pay attention to Shanshan shares, Tianci materials, etc

the bottom of policy resonates with the bottom of demand, and the boom of new energy power generation rebounds: after the 531 new deal, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a painful period, forcing technological progress and cost optimization. After calculation, it is estimated that each link of the industrial chain has only 5%-10% room for decline from the parity requirements, and the parity is expected to accelerate in 2019. At the end of the year, the policy turned to repair expectations, and the domestic installed capacity is expected to hit the bottom and rebound; At the same time, the overseas market showed high growth stimulated by the decline in prices, and the upward trend of demand was clear. The recovery of the wind power industry in the past 18 years is essentially due to the improvement of the low cycle fatigue test, which is called abandoning wind power and limiting power less than 5x104. In the first three quarters of 2018, the "six red provinces" became the "three red provinces". Jilin and Gansu are also close to meeting the conditions for lifting the red warning, and the business environment continues to improve. In addition, the rapid development of decentralized wind power will become an important force to promote the growth of industry demand. Looking forward to 19 years, the fall in steel prices will ease the cost pressure of wind power enterprises. At the same time, the recession node of superimposed subsidies is approaching, and the industry is expected to rush to install. The new installed capacity is expected to reach 30GW next year, and the profitability of wind turbine Enterprises will stabilize and recover in the second half of 2019. Investment suggestions: 1) focusing on low cost and high efficiency of photovoltaic, key recommendations: Tongwei shares and Longji shares; 2) The recovery momentum of wind power continues, and Goldwind technology and Tianshun wind energy are mainly recommended

speed up electric infrastructure and pay attention to UHV and distribution: under the background of the steady growth of Laji construction, the third round of UHV centralized construction tide is coming. This compact machine of the Energy Bureau can use various plastic materials to produce particles and debris. 14 lines that have been centrally approved have been successively opened and approved, and it is expected to release about 46.8 billion yuan of main equipment orders. From the perspective of rhythm, 18/19 will be the year of approval, and 19/20 will be the peak delivery of 2million tons of frugal fertilizer equipment factory. Relevant enterprises will usher in a wave of performance rise period, with revenue elasticity of more than 10%. With the completion of UHV backbone and the large-scale access of new energy, the process of making up the arrears of distribution investment is accelerating, and the total investment scale of incremental distribution and micronucleus quasi projects is expected to reach 252billion yuan. The field of distribution equipment presents a natural decentralized pattern. Even the five industrial units under the national flag with dual advantages in technology and resources, the total winning ratio is only 15.4%. However, with the further deepening of power reform, new business models such as distribution leasing, distribution energy conservation, distribution, transportation and inspection outsourcing are gradually emerging, accelerating the concentration of market share to advantageous enterprises. In addition, the growth rate of low-voltage electrical appliance industry is expected to maintain a stable growth of 10%. With the strong rise of domestic brands and the accelerated elimination of small enterprises, local leading enterprises are expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 15%. Investment suggestions: 1) the speed-up and new distribution mode of UHV construction is conducive to the electrical equipment enterprises with leading technology. Key recommendations: Pinggao electric, Guodian Nari, XJ electric; Suggestions: China XD and TBEA; 2) Power investment is inclined to distribution, which is good for traditional primary and secondary equipment enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to: Haixing power and Jinzhi technology; 3) The orders of low-voltage electric extruder enterprises will be significantly increased, the concentration of the extruder industry will be steadily increased, and the competitive advantage of leading enterprises will become more and more significant. Key recommendations: Chint electric appliance and Nader electric appliance

industrial control has benefited from industrial upgrading for a long time, and is optimistic about platform companies: industrial control demand has declined in the short term due to the impact of macroeconomic and manufacturing contraction, and will benefit from the general trend of industrial upgrading in the long term. Local manufacturers are also expected to continue to promote import substitution by virtue of their cost performance and market response advantages. Domestic industrial control enterprises mostly start with power electronics technology, looking for business collaboration on the same platform. From the development path of local industrial control enterprises such as Huichuan technology, meggitt, inverton, etc., they mostly extend and broaden their business scope from power supply/frequency converter, inverter, servo, to drive, control and other products, and then locate in the overall industrial control solution provider. Our key recommendations: Huichuan technology, meggitt; At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the product field: Hongfa Co., Ltd., Xinjie electric and Mingzhi electric, etc

risk tip: the frequency or range of policy adjustment exceeds expectations; Power demand declines or power investment is lower than expected; Intensifying industry competition, etc

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